Portfolio Update

Markets ended June on a positive note, marking the fourth consecutive month of gains. The Nifty rose around 3.10% in June, recovering almost back to its all-time high. Since March, the markets are up roughly 14.5%, and the Nifty is now less than 3% away from its record high set in September 2024. This means markets have essentially been in a correction phase for the past nine months. I’ve shared more insights below, but here’s a quick snapshot of market performance over the last week:

Back in February 2024, gold broke out of its long-term high of $2100. In the 18 months since, it has rallied to $3343, with a peak of $3435. The chart below offers more clarity:

From the chart, we can see gold bouncing off its trendline and continuing to make higher highs. However, last week we witnessed a breakdown attempt from this trendline, hinting at a possible short-term dip. That said, the following two days were strong for gold, pushing it back above the trendline. One key observation: gold hasn’t made a new high since April, and there have been three failed attempts to break past the $3440 level. If gold continues to struggle at this resistance, we may see a time or price correction, with a conservative downside target around $3150.

On the other hand, silver told a different story in June:

Silver finally broke above the $35 level, and I allocated some capital after this breakout. For the past 6–8 months, silver was stuck in a sideways range below $35. With this breakout, I’m optimistic about a potential rally in the coming months. Gold and silver don’t always move in sync, but they tend to maintain a range-bound ratio. With gold performing exceptionally well, silver may now be set to catch up.

As for my stock portfolio — I’ve still not entered smallcaps or midcaps. I remain fully invested in largecaps and mega largecaps. Here’s what has changed in my holdings for the month of July:

That’s it for this week!

- Manish Chandre